The growth in industrial production was at 10.7% in Nov'05, corresponding to the higher end of market expectations, and providing a positive surprise following a weaker-than-expected Oct'05 reading. Seasonally-adjusted series indicate a considerable pick-up in industrial output with 4.0% growth, following the 1.5% contraction in October. Non-petroleum manufacturing has grown 11.3%, which marks the second highest reading of the year following the Feb'05 level of 13.6%.
Main contributors to the higher than expected growth have been the chemicals and minerals sectors, where output growth has been in the vicinity of 25% in annual terms. Investment demand appears to have maintained its strength and propelled machinery and equipment production by 16.1%. Among export sectors, textiles and clothing have contracted by 8.1% and 19.1%, providing testament to persisting problems in these sectors due to tough competition.
The available data suggests that, in case of no surprises in December, the IP growth in 2005 is likely to average at 5.3%, which is in conformity with our YE05 GDP growth estimate at 5.8%. |